Trump Leapfrogs Hillary In Shocking New Presidential Poll (VIDEO)

Trump Leapfrogs Hillary In Shocking New Presidential Poll (VIDEO) | Trump | Multimedia Politics
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Xfinity Arena of Everett, on Aug. 30, 2016, in Everett, Wash. (Evan Vucci / Associated Press)

In the following video, I explain the recent results of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll which has Donald Trump leap frogging Hillary Clinton to take the lead by 3%. Now, it’s important to note, that in most national polls, Hillary still leads (allegedly) by 6-7%, but I explain why THIS poll includes a sample of people the others don’t, and one that might just be enough to hand Donald Trump the Presidency.


In contrast with the Daybreak poll, other surveys have shown the race tightening recently, but not enough to erase Clinton’s lead. Averages of recent public polls have Clinton ahead by six or seven percentage points.


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Clinton also holds significant leads in polls of key states that have been closely divided in recent elections. Those include Virginia and Colorado, where the Democrats have stopped buying additional television advertising time because they no longer feel it necessary, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, must-win states for Trump where the most recent surveys show him losing by big margins.

The Daybreak poll’s divergence from that trend has attracted attention from all sides, with Republicans citing it as a hopeful indicator and Democrats as a warning against complacency.

The poll has a very different methodology than most other surveys. Some elements of the methodology have drawn criticism from some analysts; others have defended it.

Analysis of the polling data makes clear where most of the difference between the Daybreak poll and other surveys comes from. The poll respondents who did not vote in 2012 are disproportionately whites who did not graduate from college — Trump’s strongest supporters. Almost six in 10 of the 2012 nonvoters fall into that group. By contrast, non-college-educated whites make up about four in 10 of the poll respondents who did vote four years ago.

Given those demographics, it’s no surprise that Trump does significantly better with the 2012 nonvoters than with people who cast a ballot last time around. And because the Daybreak poll includes more of those previous nonvoters than some other surveys, Trump performs better in its forecast.

As of Tuesday, Trump led by seven points among those who could have voted in 2012 but didn’t. Clinton led by two points among those who voted four years ago or were too young to vote then, the Daybreak poll found. Among whites without a college degree who did not vote in 2012, Trump led Clinton by more than 2-1, the poll found.

The Daybreak poll may represent the views of those potential voters more heavily than most surveys do because of the way it’s structured.

All polls adjust their data to ensure that their samples match known demographics — the correct share of men versus women, young versus old, white versus nonwhite — a process known as weighting.

The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to match how people voted in 2012. Because of that weighting, about 40% of the poll respondents are people who were old enough to vote four years ago, but did not.

That share accurately reflects the U.S. population, although it could overstate the impact those people will have on this year’s election.

To take into account the fact that many people don’t vote, the poll asks respondents to rate their likelihood of voting on a scale from 0 to 100. The more likely they say they are to vote, the more heavily they weigh in the poll’s outcome. That’s very different from the approach most surveys take in which a person either is included entirely or excluded entirely from the poll sample.

Currently, those who did not vote in 2012 give themselves on average a 58% chance of voting this time. That’s considerably less than the 92% average given by those who did vote four years ago. But it may still be too high — surveys routinely find that people overestimate their likelihood of voting.

If those who did not vote four years ago overestimate how likely they are to vote this time, the poll could be weighted too heavily by their views. Weighting the sample to match what people say about their 2012 vote can introduce other errors as well.

By contrast, standard polls can cause an error in the opposite direction. They generally use a person’s voting history as one factor in a process designed to screen for likely voters. Those polls may discard entirely the views of many people who didn’t vote in past elections. Not all polling organizations disclose how they screen for likely voters.

While the Daybreak poll may overestimate the number of previous nonvoters who will cast ballots this time round, a strong likely voter screen can blind a poll to the possibility that an unconventional candidate — like Trump — may draw in voters who haven’t participated before.

But polls are snapshots. Until all the votes are tallied after election day, there’s no way to know which approach best fits this year’s electorate.

In closing, in the final video below Peter Schiff gives offers his explanation after the 2008 election for not just how Barack Obama got elected, but also how we as Americans ultimately determine all our elected officials. The video is about 5 minutes, and the first half you may wonder where he’s going with it, but the second half is hysterical…. sad, and true… but hysterical. 



THE VOICE OF REASON is the pen name of Michael DePinto, a graduate of Capital University Law School, and an attorney in Florida. Having worked in the World Trade Center, along with other family and friends, Michael was baptized by fire into the world of politics on September 11, 2001. Michael’s political journey began with tuning in religiously to whatever the talking heads on television had to say, then Michael became a “Tea-Bagging” activist as his liberal friends on the Left would say, volunteering within the Jacksonville local Tea Party, and most recently Michael was sworn in as an attorney. Today, Michael is a major contributor to, he owns and operates, where Michael provides what is often very ‘colorful’ political commentary, ripe with sarcasm, no doubt the result of Michael’s frustration as he feels we are witnessing the end of the American Empire. The topics Michael most often weighs in on are: Martial Law, FEMA Camps, Jade Helm, Economic Issues, Government Corruption, and Government Conspiracy.

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